{"id":3879,"date":"2023-07-10T08:56:51","date_gmt":"2023-07-10T13:56:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/waukeshafoundation.org\/?p=3879"},"modified":"2023-07-19T13:37:43","modified_gmt":"2023-07-19T18:37:43","slug":"mid-year-market-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/waukeshafoundation.org\/mid-year-market-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Mid-Year Market Update"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brighter Summer Days<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Mid-Year Market Update from Northern Trust<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:15% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"200\" height=\"204\" src=\"https:\/\/waukeshafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Katie-TPRC.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3880 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/waukeshafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Katie-TPRC.webp 200w, https:\/\/waukeshafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Katie-TPRC-24x24.webp 24w, https:\/\/waukeshafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Katie-TPRC-48x48.webp 48w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">By Katie Nixon, CFA, CPWA\u00ae, CIMA\u00ae Chief Investment Officer, Northern Trust Published June 30, 2023 in Northern Trust&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northerntrust.com\/united-states\/institute\/the-weekly-five-subscriber?utm_medium=email-invested&amp;utm_source=marketo&amp;utm_campaign=wm-insights-20230630&amp;utm_content=investing&amp;mkt_tok=NTA0LVpZSy0xNzMAAAGMrRyhR_NHSu7xUPscMG_Yxig8KjW2OnbXs-CPYkIUqgM_8jTAfwFgiwR8bTMw7AiHnVpLciyxd0i4bzke-RLKtcXkPjwh8QfCjCDq6NEMLFTFzNA5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Weekly Five<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By several meaningful measures, we end the first half of 2023 in a more comfortable place than we began it. While labor markets and consumer spending have remained strong, inflation has moderated enough to allow the Federal Reserve to relax (if not entirely give up) its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes. Historic bank failures and a U.S. government borrowing impasse roiled markets, but temporarily, and stocks in the U.S. and globally are largely ending the half on a welcome high note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are our five takeaways from the week of June 30, 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-3c6aa630\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-3cf16db7 alignwide\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-a081ba2c gb-tabs\" data-opened-tab=\"1\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-1bb9cb2d gb-tabs__buttons\">\n\n<button class=\"gb-button gb-button-76190439 gb-button-text gb-tabs__button gb-block-is-current\"><strong>01<\/strong><\/button>\n\n\n\n<button class=\"gb-button gb-button-6aff9a7a gb-button-text gb-tabs__button\"><strong>02<\/strong><\/button>\n\n\n\n<button class=\"gb-button gb-button-ec5cbf7d gb-button-text gb-tabs__button\"><strong>03<\/strong><\/button>\n\n\n\n<button class=\"gb-button gb-button-b44370d9 gb-button-text gb-tabs__button\"><strong>04<\/strong><\/button>\n\n\n\n<button class=\"gb-button gb-button-c7c433ba gb-button-text gb-tabs__button\"><strong>05<\/strong><\/button>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-118c4138 gb-tabs__items\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-4dedbbb1 gb-tabs__item gb-tabs__item-open\">\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What are the highlights of global stock market performance for the first half?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The second quarter marked significant progress for risk-asset markets globally, with some discernible trends. First, the month of June provided the bulk of returns across global equity markets, with the MSCI All Country World Index rising nearly 4.5% for the month and 5.7% for the quarter. The year-to-date return for global equities topped 13%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It was a great quarter for investors in U.S. equities, with the Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s 500 gaining more than 7%, driving a 15%+ return year-to-date. Many had worried about the narrow nature of the advance in early June, with a few stocks representing more than the lion\u2019s share of gains. During the month, however, share price gains broadened: The equal-weighted S&amp;P handily outperformed the cap-weighted index for the month. Underneath the hood of the U.S. market, value stocks took the upper hand for the month, although continue to lag their growth counterparts both for the quarter and so far this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Abroad, The MSCI\u2019s EAFE Index of large and mid-cap securities in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, lagged the U.S. indices, but has climbed more than 11% this year. Emerging markets marginally bested EAFE for the month, yet lag behind all developed markets on a quarter- and year-to-date basis, weighed down in particular by significant underperformance of China.&nbsp;<strong>On a quarterly basis, emerging markets ex-China outperformed the broad Emerging Markets index by over 5%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-4183c684 gb-tabs__item\">\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is fueling consumer sentiment?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With rising equity prices, stable home prices, low unemployment and falling inflation, it is not a surprise that consumers are feeling pretty good. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey reading for June came in at 64.4, ahead of the consensus estimate and a 9% improvement over May\u2019s reading.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both the present and the future appear brighter in consumers\u2019 eyes, with the \u201ccurrent conditions\u201d reading improved to 69% and the \u201cexpectations\u201d component also improved significantly from the month before. This bodes well for resilient consumption, which has been trending softer recently, with personal spending more or less flat in the latest reading.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>As we have observed in the past, consumer sentiment is heavily influenced by gasoline prices, which are on constant display, and we encounter on a regular basis as we fill up our tanks. A year ago, the national average price for a gallon of regular was $4.857. It now sits at $3.543, a decline of over 25% according to AAA. This is meaningful, and influential on sentiment.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-81343f48 gb-tabs__item\">\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is the latest on Europe\u2019s inflation fight?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation in Europe continues to trend sticky and uncomfortably high. While eurozone flash Consumer Price Index data for June fell modestly, driven by a drop in energy prices, core inflation still rose to 5.4% as a strong labor market drove higher wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The unemployment rate in the eurozone hit the all-time low of 6.5% again. Unlike in the U.S., where we continue to see economic resilience, the macroeconomic environment in Europe is strained with Germany already in a technical recession. This keeps the European Central Bank and its president Christine Lagarde in a bind, as inflation pushes tighter monetary policy, and the potential for an even deeper recession.&nbsp;<strong>President Lagarde has been vocal and direct that the ECB would fight inflation \u2014 requiring higher rates, for a longer time. This puts a July rate hike very much on the table if not a certainty at this point.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-5a88b6e4 gb-tabs__item\">\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflation: Are we there yet?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred measure, fell 0.5% from a year earlier to 3.8%, its lowest level since April 2021 and far below the expectation of 4.6%, Core PCE inflation is at 4.6%, below expectations of 4.7% but remains sticky, falling only 0.1% from a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The devil is in the core here, with insufficient progress being made. The core inflation ex-shelter data are proving difficult to tamp down amid the healthy labor market backdrop.&nbsp; With heavy influence from wages, services inflation runs hot. With labor markets being a key driver, it is unlikely that we can make significant progress on this type of inflation without seeing some softness in the labor market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While weekly unemployment claims did fall this week, the moving average is still rising which may indicate some softening around the edges. The absolute level of weekly claims remains far below one consistent with significant weakening.&nbsp;<strong>The data supports our \u201ctighter for longer\u201d forecast for U.S. monetary policy, and the \u201chigher for longer\u201d interest rate forecast \u2014 a forecast that is affirmed consistently by the Fed\u2019s communications.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-69cf65ea gb-tabs__item\">\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How are bond investors balancing resilient growth and stickier inflation?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Market expectations continue to respond to incoming data, and are adjusting to accommodate a stickier inflation outlook, but also a more resilient growth backdrop. Influenced by the growing economic evidence supporting a soft-landing forecast, and observant of the inflation data that is trending in the right direction but proving to be stickier and more persistent than the Fed\u2019s policy target, investors are adjusting their base case.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures markets are now pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a July rate hike and nearly 40% chance of two hikes by October. The yield of the U.S. two-year Treasury has gone above 4.9%, reflecting investors\u2019 expectations for stickier inflation requiring \u201chigher for longer\u201d rates. Spot treasuries and futures have been adjusting, and readjusting constantly in 2023. These adjustments have accompanied generally rising equity prices and low equity volatility.&nbsp;<strong>Markets are taking the evolving Fed landscape in stride, under the belief that the end of the rate-hike cycle is near, and that the soft-landing economic forecast is more likely.<\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brighter Summer Days A Mid-Year Market Update from Northern Trust By several meaningful measures, we end the first half of 2023 in a more comfortable place than we began it. While labor markets and consumer spending have remained strong, inflation has moderated enough to allow the Federal Reserve to relax (if not entirely give up) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":3893,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[35,44],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Mid-Year Market Update - Waukesha County Community Foundation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A market update shows that by several meaningful measures, we end the first half of 2023 in a more comfortable place than we began it.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/waukeshafoundation.org\/mid-year-market-update\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mid-Year Market Update - 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